|
MillerCoors in the NY Home D Retail Market
October 11, 2007 – Taking a narrow minded view of the recently announced merger between
Miller and MolsonCoors by merely measuring sales and pricing in the NY
Home D Retail market, it appears the one most poised to gain is Miller.
Looking at year-to-date sales through September 29, A-B’s case share is just under 45% while a
combined MillerCoors is under 26%, which is inline but less than national figures – probably due to the large craft market in the Home D
space.
Morningstar analyst Matthew Reilly says the merger amounts to an acknowledgment from the
makers of Miller Lite and MoslsonCoors that they're struggling in a
low-growth environment as craft brewers and makers of wine and spirits
chip away at their market share. In the NY Home D Retail market,
MolsonCoors has not been struggling. In fact, MolsonCoors’ year to date
case share increase of 1.43 does not come close to any other brewer. And
they are even further ahead of the pack with their sales share
increasing by more than 1.27. Miller, the number four brewer in this
market, has not been performing well and saw a case share loss of almost
.31.
If we analyze the brewers by sales share, we see the gap between A-B and
the new MillerCoors is smaller. Year to date sales share is more than
34% for A-B while the sales share for a combined MillerCoors is more
than 21%. The key in determining who is more likely to gain is to break
out the MillerCoors sales share number. MolsonCoors is responsible for
16% of that number while Miller is only 5%.
###
Strange Change
October 11, 2007 - As we note above, MolsonCoors has performed well year
to date. Coors Light has consistently had double digit percent case
share increases for most of the year. Come September and there is a
change blowing in the wind. For the four week period ending September
29, Coors Light, again, had one of the largest case share increases of
1.42, but Bud Light trumped it with a whopping increase of 2.45. We do
note the difference in average price per case is one of the largest
we've seen at almost $1.70.
In the last market insight, we reported Corona seemed to be making a
turn around with its first case share increase in the NY Home D Retail
market in weeks. Apparently, it was short lived. For the four week
period ending September 29, Corona had a small case share loss and that
was with the average price per case down by .13.
Previously, we have reported that Heineken Premium Light's case share
increases have almost equaled the losses realized by Heineken. For the
four week period ending September 29, Heineken's loss is only about one
third of HPL's gain. But, if we take into account Amstel Light's case
share loss of .332, the net affect for Heineken brands is almost a wash.
###
|
