Is the NY Home D Market Really Different?

April 14, 2008 – The 2007 beer industry results and rankings are beginning to crop up in many of the industry's publications. We always look forward to this time of year as it gives us the opportunity to compare the New York Home D retail market with the national chain stores.

A-B has been generating a lot of buzz with everyone analyzing A-B's moves to increase market share for their core brands, and to seemingly introduce new products based on the success of other brands.  It's been widely reported that the Bud family was down low single digits nationwide for 2007. Interestingly, the Home D retail market tells a very different tale. In fact, not only did the Bud family have some of the most significant gains in this market, most other A-B brands, with the exception of the Michelob family, showed increases as well.  And A-B was one of only two domestic brewers to increase sales share for 2007!

As we observed throughout 2007, Coors did not settle in at the #3 spot as they do nationally.  Instead, they maintained their case share lead of 3:1 over Miller while continuing to claim the #2 position in this market. Coors' success in this market is to Millers' detriment. We'll be keeping our eyes open to see how the merger of the two affects the brands.

Reviewing the overall rankings on a national level, Corona and Heineken seem to perform much differently than they do in the New York Home D retail market.  According to Beer Marketer's Insights, Corona ranks #6 and Heineken #9 nationally, but in the Home D retail market, Corona and Heineken take the #4 and #5 positions respectively.

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Post Super Bowl Sunday

April 14, 2008 – Rumor has it that A-B's success in the NY chain store market has experienced a sharp and sudden downturn post-Super Bowl Sunday. We can't say the same for the New York Home D retail market in the eight week period following the Super Bowl,  where A-B has done quite well with almost a 1.0 case share increase.  Most of that increase was attributable to substantial increases in case share for their Bud and Natural brands. The Michelob and Busch brands, however, were responsible for putting a significant crimp in those gains.

Miller Lite also had a successful post-Super Bowl period, netting one of the biggest increases [for them] we have seen in a while. For the period ending 3/9, Miller Lite increased case share by .65.

Despite the increases in overall import volume, many imports sustained substantial losses for the six week period following the Super Bowl and ending 3/9. Heineken moved into the #1 import position, despite its own continued share losses, and dropped Corona to #2 in the New York Home D retail market.  Interestingly, a review of last year's rankings shows Heineken making a similar move during the same period.  Perhaps as the weather heats up, consumers switch gears and turn back to Corona, or maybe there's some sort of pricing and/or inventory issue at work here.  Feel free to e-mail us at hdrmi.opinion@thebeercounter.co m  with your take on this.

Another notable drop in ranking for this period is seen in Sam Adams which has historically ranked around the #10 spot. As of 3/9, Sam Adams was #13. Could this be due to the whopping $2+ average case price increase?
 

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